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Modelling foot and mouth disease.
John H M Thornley1, James France
1Centre for Nutrition Modelling, Department of Animal & Poultry Science, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. johnthornley@waitrose.com
Preventive Veterinary Medicine
|March 31, 2009
Summary
A simple foot and mouth disease (FMD) model shows early detection and rapid culling at the index farm, alongside movement restrictions, effectively control outbreaks. Control strategies require reassessment with changing farm practices.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary epidemiology
- Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases
Background:
- Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) poses a significant threat to livestock industries.
- Effective control strategies are crucial to mitigate economic and animal welfare impacts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a simple, generic model for simulating Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) spread from an index site.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of various control strategies, including culling and movement restrictions.
Main Methods:
- A three-term radial function was used to simulate disease spread, incorporating natural processes and animal movements.
- Model parameters included disease reporting thresholds, culling rates, movement restrictions, and vaccination.
- A predictor-corrector method was developed to estimate secondary infections.
Main Results:
- Simulation results indicate that early disease detection, rapid slaughter at the index farm, and movement restrictions are effective control measures.
- The model's R0bf (between-farm basic reproductive ratio) was calculated numerically.
- The uncorrected model showed some comparison with 2001 UK FMD epidemic cattle data.
Conclusions:
- Simple, transparent models are valuable for reassessing FMD control strategies in light of current farm practices.
- Continuous re-evaluation of control strategies is necessary due to evolving farming practices.
- The model provides a framework for understanding FMD dynamics and testing interventions.
