The first year renal function as a predictor of long-term graft survival after kidney transplantation

This study examined the impact of graft function at the end of the first year after kidney transplantation on long-term graft survival. We analyzed the roles of serum creatinine (Scr) and other variables as predictors of graft survival among 235 adult kidney transplant patients. The subjects were divided into 3 groups according to their Scr at the end of the first year: group 1, Scr < 100 micromol/L; group 2, 100 micromol/L < or = Scr < or = 150 micromol/L; and group 3, Scr >150 micromol/L. The annual rate of graft loss of 0.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.63-0.77) in group 1, was lower than those in group 2 (2.1%; 95% CI, 2.02-2.18; P < .0001) and group 3 (6%; 5.74-6.26; P < .0001). Regression analysis showed the role of recipient age at the time of operation, and Scr level at the end of the first year to be independent predictors of graft loss. Graft survival was not influenced by any other studied parameter, including donor age, year of procedure, warm ischemia time, history of acute tubular necrosis, and occurrence of an acute rejection episode. We conclude that the 1-year Scr value predicts long-term renal graft survival, representing a simple, practical tool to identify recipients with an high risk for late graft failure.