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Statistical analyses of Hellin's law.

Johan Fellman1, Aldur W Eriksson

  • 1Folkhälsan Institute of Genetics, Department of Genetic Epidemiology, Helsinki, Finland. fellman@hanken.fi

Twin Research and Human Genetics : the Official Journal of the International Society for Twin Studies
|April 2, 2009
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Hellin's law, a rule for multiple maternities, is not always accurate. Analysis shows triplet and quadruplet rates deviate, with modern excesses linked to fertility treatments, especially in older mothers.

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Area of Science:

  • Reproductive biology
  • Biostatistics
  • Demography

Background:

  • Hellin's law is a historical rule of thumb for estimating multiple maternities.
  • Mathematical analysis has shown Hellin's law is not universally accurate.
  • Discrepancies in Hellin's law are difficult to explain and eliminate.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate Hellin's law in statistical analyses of multiple maternity rates.
  • To identify reasons for deviations (excesses or deficiencies) from Hellin's law.
  • To analyze triplet and quadruplet maternity rates in Sweden from 1751-2000.

Main Methods:

  • Statistical analysis of multiple maternity rates.
  • Application of regression analyses to twinning and triplet rates.
  • Development of concordance measures to compare triplet rates with Hellin's law.

Main Results:

  • Triplet rates are generally closer to Hellin's law than quadruplet rates.
  • Both triplet and quadruplet rates showed excesses after the 1960s, attributed to fertility technologies.
  • Recent data indicate excesses in triplet rates, particularly among older mothers.

Conclusions:

  • Hellin's law serves as a benchmark but cannot confirm multiple maternity rates.
  • Deviations from Hellin's law, especially excesses in higher-order maternities, require careful statistical investigation.
  • Modern fertility technologies significantly impact multiple maternity rates, causing deviations from historical patterns observed with Hellin's law.