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The multidimensional prognostic index predicts short- and long-term mortality in hospitalized geriatric patients with
Alberto Pilotto1, Filomena Addante, Luigi Ferrucci
1Department of Medical Sciences, Geriatric Unit and Gerontology-Geriatrics Research Laboratory, IRCCS Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza, Viale Cappuccini 1, San Giovanni Rotondo, Foggia I-71013, Italy. alberto.pilotto@operapadrepio.it
Background:
Multidimensional impairment of older patients may influence the clinical outcome of acute or chronic diseases. Our purpose is to evaluate the usefulness of a multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) for predicting mortality risk in older patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).
Methods:
This prospective study included 134 hospitalized patients aged 65 and older with a diagnosis of CAP. A standardized CGA that included information on clinical, cognitive, functional, and nutritional status as well as comorbidities, medications, and social support network was used to calculate MPI. The pneumonia severity index (PSI) was also calculated. The predictive value of the MPI for all cause mortality over a 1-year follow-up was evaluated and was compared with that of PSI.
Results:
Higher MPI values were significantly associated with higher mortality at 30 days (Grade 1 = 3%, Grade 2 = 12%, Grade 3 = 44%, p < .001), 6 months (Grade 1 = 7%, Grade 2 = 21%, Grade 3 = 50%, p < .001), and 1 year (Grade 1 = 10%, Grade 2 = 33%, Grade 3 = 53%, p < .001). A close agreement was found between the estimated mortality by MPI and the observed mortality. MPI had a significant greater discriminatory power than PSI both at 30 days (area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve = 0.83 vs 0.71, p = .019) and 6 months (0.79 vs 0.69, p = .035), but not after 1 year of follow-up (0.80 vs 0.75, p = .185).
Conclusions:
This MPI, calculated from information collected in a standardized CGA, accurately stratifies hospitalized elderly patients with CAP into groups at varying risk of short- and long-term mortality. The predictive accuracy of the MPI was higher than the predictive value of the PSI.
Insights
A new Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) accurately predicts mortality risk in elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). This comprehensive geriatric assessment tool offers superior prediction compared to the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI).
Area of Science:
- Geriatric Medicine
- Internal Medicine
- Public Health
Background:
- Older patients with multidimensional impairment face increased risks from acute and chronic diseases.
- Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) poses a significant mortality risk for the elderly population.
- Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) is crucial for evaluating the complex health status of older adults.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the usefulness of a Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) for predicting mortality in older patients with CAP.
- To determine if MPI, derived from CGA, can stratify mortality risk more effectively than existing tools.
- To assess the 1-year all-cause mortality predictive value of MPI in hospitalized CAP patients.
Main Methods:
- A prospective study involving 134 hospitalized patients aged 65 and older diagnosed with CAP.
- Standardized Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) to collect data on clinical, cognitive, functional, nutritional status, comorbidities, medications, and social support.
- Calculation of Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) and Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) for comparative analysis of predictive accuracy.
Main Results:
- Higher MPI scores significantly correlated with increased mortality at 30 days, 6 months, and 1 year (p < .001).
- MPI demonstrated a closer agreement between estimated and observed mortality rates.
- MPI showed significantly greater discriminatory power than PSI at 30 days (AUC=0.83 vs 0.71) and 6 months (AUC=0.79 vs 0.69).
Conclusions:
- The MPI, calculated via standardized CGA, accurately stratifies mortality risk in elderly CAP patients.
- MPI proves to be a valuable tool for predicting both short-term and long-term mortality in this population.
- MPI exhibits superior predictive accuracy for mortality compared to the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI).
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