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External validation of the paediatric logistic organ dysfunction score.

Pedro Celiny R Garcia1, Pablo Eulmesekian, Ricardo G Branco

  • 1Hospital São Lucas da PUCRS, Rua Curupaiti 62, Porto Alegre, RS CEP 90820-090, Brazil. celiny@terra.com.br

Intensive Care Medicine
|April 11, 2009
PubMed
Summary

The paediatric logistic organ dysfunction (PELOD) score shows excellent discrimination in South American pediatric intensive care units (PICUs). However, it over-predicts mortality and has poor calibration, requiring careful use in clinical trials.

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Area of Science:

  • Pediatric critical care medicine
  • Clinical scoring systems
  • Epidemiology of critical illness

Background:

  • The Paediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction (PELOD) score is used to assess critically ill children.
  • Validation of existing clinical scores in diverse populations is crucial for their reliable application.
  • South American pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) require validated tools for patient management and research.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To externally validate the Paediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction (PELOD) score in two South American PICUs.
  • To assess the discriminative ability and calibration of the PELOD score and its daily version (dPELOD).
  • To evaluate the PELOD score's utility as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials.

Main Methods:

  • A prospective observational cohort study was conducted in PICUs in Brazil and Argentina.

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  • Data included demographics, diagnoses, interventions, length of stay, and mortality.
  • The PELOD and daily PELOD (dPELOD) scores were calculated using the worst daily values and worst overall PICU values, respectively.
  • Main Results:

    • A total of 1,476 admissions were analyzed, with observed mortality of 4.7% and predicted mortality of 6.6%.
    • The PELOD score demonstrated excellent discrimination (Area Under the ROC Curve = 0.93).
    • Both PELOD and dPELOD scores showed poor calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) and over-predicted mortality, particularly in specific risk intervals.

    Conclusions:

    • The PELOD score is reproducible and exhibits excellent discriminative capacity in the studied South American PICUs.
    • The score over-predicts mortality and demonstrates poor calibration, potentially due to identified deficiencies.
    • Caution is advised when using the PELOD score as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials due to its calibration issues.