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Published on: September 23, 2025
Medicare risk adjustment for the frail elderly
John Kautter1, Melvin Ingber, Gregory C Pope
1RTI International, Waltham, MA 02451, USA. jkautter@rti.org
Medicare is exploring frailty adjustment in risk adjustment models for Medicare Advantage and private organizations. Research results are presented for frail elderly risk adjustment, focusing on revised frailty adjusters for Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly organizations.
Area of Science:
- Health Services Research
- Gerontology
- Health Economics
Background:
- The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has consistently sought methods to integrate frailty adjustment into risk adjustment strategies.
- The Hierarchical Condition Categories (CMS-HCC) model is a key component of Medicare risk adjustment for private health plans.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present research findings on Medicare risk adjustment for the frail elderly population.
- To evaluate the impact of frailty adjustment implementation for Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) organizations since 2004.
- To report on a revised frailty adjuster being phased in for PACE organizations from 2008 to 2012.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of Medicare risk adjustment data incorporating frailty metrics.
- Longitudinal evaluation of risk adjustment accuracy for frail elderly beneficiaries.
- Assessment of the revised frailty adjuster's performance in PACE settings.
Main Results:
- The study details the outcomes of Medicare risk adjustment for frail elderly individuals.
- Findings are presented regarding the effectiveness of frailty adjustment in PACE organizations.
- Performance data for the revised frailty adjuster during its implementation phase is discussed.
Conclusions:
- Frailty adjustment is a critical consideration for refining Medicare risk adjustment methodologies.
- The research provides insights into the evolving application of frailty adjusters for vulnerable populations.
- The revised frailty adjuster shows potential for improving risk prediction in specific Medicare programs.
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