A simple scoring system based on clinical features to predict locally advanced rectal cancers

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Medical Informatics

Background:

• Locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) poses significant treatment challenges.
• Accurate prediction of LARC is crucial for optimal patient management and therapeutic strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify clinical risk factors associated with locally advanced rectal cancer.
• To develop and validate a predictive scoring system for LARC.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of 413 rectal cancer patients to identify significant clinical predictors.
• Development of a scoring system incorporating tumor size, differentiation, and serum CEA levels.
• Validation of the scoring system in an independent cohort of 279 patients.

Main Results:

• Tumor size (>2 cm), poor differentiation, and elevated serum CEA were significant predictors of LARC (P < 0.01).
• The developed scoring system achieved an AUROC of 0.751 (training) and 0.756 (validation).
• The system accurately stratified patients into low (18.2%), intermediate (49.2%), and high (83.0%) risk groups for LARC.

Conclusions:

• Tumor size, differentiation, and serum CEA levels are critical indicators for LARC.
• A straightforward scoring system based on these factors demonstrates utility in predicting locally advanced rectal cancer.