Nursing workforce planning: the key to success.

Area of Science:

• Healthcare Management
• Nursing Workforce Planning
• Predictive Modeling

Background:

• The nursing shortage poses a significant challenge to healthcare systems.
• Planned expansion at The Ottawa Hospital (TOH) necessitates accurate future workforce projections.
• Existing workforce planning models do not adequately address the unique aspects of nursing.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a novel, evidence-based workforce planning model for nursing.
• To accurately predict annual nursing hiring needs for TOH over three and five-year horizons.
• To establish an evaluation framework for the model's predictive accuracy.

Main Methods:

• A comprehensive literature review identified essential workforce planning steps.
• A program logic model was employed to construct the predictive model.
• The model's accuracy was evaluated using a defined framework.

Main Results:

• The developed workforce planning model demonstrated a variance of less than 5% over four consecutive years.
• The model accurately forecasted projected nursing growth.
• This predictive capability enabled proactive recruitment strategies for TOH.

Conclusions:

• The evidence-based workforce planning model effectively addresses the unique needs of nursing.
• Accurate forecasting allows healthcare organizations to proactively manage nursing recruitment.
• The model provides a reliable tool for strategic workforce planning in nursing.