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Hindsight Biases01:12

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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now?
Confirmation Biases01:31

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The confirmation bias is the tendency to focus on information that confirms our existing beliefs and ignore information that is inconsistent with our expectations. For example, if you think that your professor is not very nice, you notice all of the instances of rude behavior exhibited by the professor while ignoring the countless pleasant interactions he is involved in on a daily basis. Have you ever fallen prey to the confirmation bias, either as the source or target of such bias?
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 23, 2026

The Modified Temptation Resistance Task: A Paradigm to Elicit Children's Strategic Lie-telling
06:51

The Modified Temptation Resistance Task: A Paradigm to Elicit Children's Strategic Lie-telling

Published on: April 6, 2018

How can we change beliefs? A Bayesian perspective.

A L B Rutten1

  • 1Commissie Methode en Validering VHAN, Aard 10, 4813 NN Breda, The Netherlands. lexrtn@concepts.nl

Homeopathy : the Journal of the Faculty of Homeopathy
|April 18, 2009
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) update beliefs via Bayesian philosophy, but can only falsify the placebo hypothesis. Overturning deeply held beliefs requires open-mindedness beyond Bayesian calculations, especially when paradigms differ.

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Area of Science:

  • Philosophy of Science
  • Medical Research Methodology

Background:

  • Bayesian philosophy explains how new evidence updates prior beliefs to posterior beliefs.
  • Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) are a key source of evidence in scientific reasoning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore the capacity of RCTs to alter established beliefs within a Bayesian framework.
  • To examine the limitations of RCT evidence in mechanism elucidation and paradigm shifts.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of Bayesian reasoning principles in scientific belief updating.
  • Evaluation of the evidential limitations of RCTs concerning intrinsic effects and placebo hypotheses.

Main Results:

  • RCT evidence can falsify the placebo hypothesis but cannot identify specific mechanisms of action.
  • Subjectivity and differing prior paradigms, as seen in homeopathy debates, hinder belief updating.
  • Accepting new paradigms requires open-mindedness and consideration of all hypotheses, superseding mere Bayesian calculations.

Conclusions:

  • While Bayesian analysis provides a structure for belief updating, RCTs have inherent limitations in overturning established beliefs.
  • The inherent subjectivity and differing paradigms, particularly in controversial fields like homeopathy, present significant barriers to belief consensus.
  • Genuine paradigm shifts necessitate an open-minded approach that transcends purely mathematical Bayesian updating.