How does early developmental assessment predict academic and attentional-behavioural skills at group and individual...

The main aim of the study was to explore the ability of a brief developmental assessment to predict teacher-rated learning and attentional and behavioural skills in the first grade of school at both the group and individual levels. A sample of 394 children (181 males, 213 females) aged 4 years were followed to the age of 6 years, and 283 of the children (145 males, 138 females; mean age 7 y 11 mo) were followed further to the first grade (age 7 y) at school. The children were administered a brief but comprehensive developmental assessment (Lene - a neurodevelopmental screening method) at their local child health-care centres at ages 4 and 6 years. In the first grade, teachers completed a detailed questionnaire (JLD Teacher Questionnaire) on the children's (mean age 7 y 11 mo, SD 3.1 mo, range 7 y 3 mo-8 y 4 mo) performance and behaviour. Structural equation modelling showed that no single developmental area predicted development during the follow-up. Instead, a comprehensive developmental outcome at age 4 years significantly predicted skills in the first grade at the group level. Developmental status at age 4 and 6 years together explained 66% of the variance of academic skills and 40% of the variance of attentional and behavioural skills in the first grade. Age-specific logistic regression analyses were constructed to produce the risk indices. At the individual level it was possible to reach acceptable levels of sensitivity and specificity for academic skills at age 4 and age 6 years. Identification of attentional and behavioural problems at the individual level was possible at age 6 years, but the number of false positives was high.