Characterizing rare-event property distributions via replicate molecular dynamics simulations of proteins

As computational resources increase, molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecules are becoming an increasingly informative complement to experimental studies. In particular, it has now become feasible to use multiple initial molecular configurations to generate an ensemble of replicate production-run simulations that allows for more complete characterization of rare events such as ligand-receptor unbinding. However, there are currently no explicit guidelines for selecting an ensemble of initial configurations for replicate simulations. Here, we use clustering analysis and steered molecular dynamics simulations to demonstrate that the configurational changes accessible in molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecules do not necessarily correlate with observed rare-event properties. This informs selection of a representative set of initial configurations. We also employ statistical analysis to identify the minimum number of replicate simulations required to sufficiently sample a given biomolecular property distribution. Together, these results suggest a general procedure for generating an ensemble of replicate simulations that will maximize accurate characterization of rare-event property distributions in biomolecules.