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Bias-variance trade-off in pharmacoepidemiological studies using physician-preference-based instrumental variables: a
Raluca Ionescu-Ittu1, Joseph A C Delaney, Michal Abrahamowicz
1Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
Instrumental variables (IV) methodology can reduce bias in drug comparison studies. The physician drug preference instrument is effective when strong, but its performance decreases with weaker instruments due to bias-variance trade-offs.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
- Health Services Research
Background:
- Instrumental variables (IV) methodology is used to address unobserved confounding in observational studies.
- Physician drug preference, defined as the treatment prescribed to a prior patient, has been proposed as an instrument in database studies comparing competing drugs.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the performance of IV estimates in simulations, focusing on the impact of the strength of the physician drug preference instrument.
- To evaluate how weakening the instrument affects IV estimate performance in the presence of unobserved confounding.
Main Methods:
- Simulations were conducted to compare risk difference estimates from conventional and IV analyses.
- The study examined both continuous and binary outcomes.
- The impact of instrument strength, specifically the proportion of patients whose treatment is not influenced by physician preference, was investigated.
Main Results:
- IV estimates demonstrated less bias compared to conventional estimates but exhibited higher variance.
- The bias-variance trade-off favored IV estimates primarily when the physician preference instrument was strong.
- The coverage rate of 95% confidence intervals for IV estimates closely approximated the nominal 95%, outperforming conventional estimates.
Conclusions:
- The physician drug preference instrument is a valuable tool for comparing competing drugs in database studies.
- Researchers should carefully consider the strength of the instrument and its underlying assumptions for reliable results.
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