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A prescriptive risk framework for individual health and safety decisions.
R L Keeney1, D von Winterfeldt
1Systems Management Department, University of Southern California.
Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|September 1, 1991
Summary
This study introduces a new framework for evaluating individual health and safety risks. It enables comparison of diverse risks by quantifying physical and psychological well-being impacts.
Area of Science:
- Health Risk Assessment
- Decision Analysis
- Quantitative Psychology
Background:
- Existing individual risk assessment methods lack a unified approach.
- Comparing disparate health and safety risks (e.g., chronic vs. acute) is challenging.
- Quantifying subjective well-being alongside physical health is crucial for comprehensive risk evaluation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a conceptual framework for the prescriptive evaluation of individual health and safety risks.
- To enable the comparison of diverse risks, including accidents vs. illness and physical vs. psychological impacts.
- To provide a unified structure from which existing risk measures can be derived.
Main Methods:
- Developing a framework that incorporates value judgments for quantifying health states.
- Utilizing probabilities to link activities and conditions to defined health states.
- Operationalizing the framework for practical evaluation and comparison of risks.
Main Results:
- A novel conceptual framework for prescriptive health and safety risk evaluation is proposed.
- The framework allows for the comparison of chronic versus acute risks, accidents versus illness, and physical versus psychological impacts.
- Existing individual risk measures are shown to be special cases of this comprehensive framework.
Conclusions:
- The proposed framework offers a unified and comprehensive approach to individual health and safety risk assessment.
- It facilitates the comparison of diverse risks by integrating physical, psychological, and probabilistic factors.
- This conceptual model provides a foundation for developing more robust and standardized risk evaluation tools.
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