Disjunctive illusory inferences and how to eliminate them

Area of Science:

• Cognitive Psychology
• Human Reasoning

Background:

• Mental model theory posits reasoning involves constructing models of possibilities.
• These models represent what is true, not what is false, leading to unique predictions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate novel illusory inferences predicted by mental model theory.
• To test the theory's distinction between disjunctions that yield illusions and those that do not.
• To explore methods for reducing these reasoning illusions.

Main Methods:

• Three experiments were conducted using embedded disjunctions (e.g., A or else (B or else C)).
• Experiment 1 corroborated the theory's distinction regarding disjunction types.
• Experiment 2 used more controlled problems, and Experiment 3 introduced auxiliary inferences to reduce illusions.

Main Results:

• The studies confirmed that specific embedded disjunctions systematically yield invalid inferences (illusory inferences).
• The distinction between disjunctions predicted to cause illusions and those not predicted to do so was supported.
• Making auxiliary inferences was found to reduce the occurrence of illusory inferences.

Conclusions:

• Mental model theory uniquely predicts illusory inferences, differentiating it from formal or probabilistic theories.
• The findings support the core tenets of mental model theory regarding the representation of truth.
• Interventions like auxiliary inferences can mitigate systematic reasoning errors, offering insights into cognitive flexibility.