Consistency between reproductive preferences and behavior: the Sri Lankan experience

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Reproductive Health
• Sociology

Background:

• Understanding fertility preferences is crucial for reproductive health planning.
• Assessing the reliability of stated fertility desires is key to accurate demographic projections.
• Previous research has explored factors influencing fertility, but the predictive power of stated preferences requires further examination.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the reliability of respondents' preferences for additional children using survey data from Sri Lanka.
• To assess the extent to which individual fertility preferences predict subsequent fertility behavior.
• To identify factors associated with unwanted fertility, including demographic characteristics, spousal agreement, and contraceptive use.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the 1982 Sri Lanka Contraceptive Prevalence Survey and the 1985 Sri Lanka Contraceptive Survey (a follow-up study).
• Analyzed aggregate-level consistency between stated preferences for more children and actual fertility outcomes.
• Examined individual-level associations between fertility preferences, demographic factors, spousal agreement, contraceptive use, and subsequent births.

Main Results:

• Aggregate-level consistency in fertility preferences was high, with actual fertility slightly exceeding wanted fertility.
• Individual fertility preferences were moderately predictive of subsequent fertility behavior.
• Unwanted fertility was associated with demographic characteristics, disagreement with husbands on desired fertility, and non-use of modern contraceptive methods.
• Women who believed their husbands desired more children were more likely to report births in the follow-up period.

Conclusions:

• Stated fertility preferences demonstrate moderate reliability in predicting fertility behavior at both aggregate and individual levels.
• Spousal communication and agreement on desired family size are significant factors influencing unwanted fertility.
• Contraceptive use, particularly modern methods, plays a critical role in preventing unwanted births and aligning fertility with preferences.