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Updated: Jun 22, 2026

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

Published on: July 3, 2020

Boom-and-bust development patterns across the Amazon deforestation frontier.

Ana S L Rodrigues¹, Robert M Ewers, Luke Parry

¹Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK. ana.rodrigues@cefe.cnrs.fr

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|June 13, 2009

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon initially improves human development but leads to a decline, indicating a boom-and-bust cycle. Sustainable policies are needed to decouple development from ecosystem degradation.

Related Experiment Videos

Last Updated: Jun 22, 2026

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach

Published on: July 3, 2020

Area of Science:

Environmental Science
Development Studies
Ecology

Background:

The Brazilian Amazon is critical for global biodiversity and climate regulation.
It faces significant development challenges, often linked to forest conversion.
Current development models may not be sustainable.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the relationship between deforestation and human development in the Brazilian Amazon.
To identify patterns of human development along the deforestation frontier.
To assess the long-term impacts of forest conversion on quality of life.

Main Methods:

Analysis of 286 municipalities at various deforestation stages.
Assessment of human development indicators (living standards, literacy, life expectancy).
Longitudinal study of development trends across the deforestation frontier.

Main Results:

A "boom-and-bust" pattern was observed in human development.
Initial deforestation stages correlated with improvements in living standards, literacy, and life expectancy.
Later stages of deforestation showed a decline in these indicators, returning to low levels.

Conclusions:

The current model of economic development through forest conversion is unsustainable.
Human development levels are paradoxically low both before and after extensive deforestation.
New financial incentives and policies are crucial for fostering sustainable development without ecosystem depletion.