[The status of blood pressure over a 10-year period]

The aim of this study is to relate the evolution of blood pressure (BP) measured every 5 years during 10 years in 12,824 healthy adults and children from both sexes. At the first evaluation, 2,856 were 4-15 years of age, 1,471 were 15-25, 6,590 were 25-45 and 1,907 were 45-65. The result of BP were adjusted according to possible effects of age, height or year of examination. Correlation coefficients at 5 and 10 years for the male patients are 0.38 and 0.34 (systolic BP and 0.23 and 0.18 (diastolic BP); for the female patients they are 0.36 and 0.31 (systolic BP) and 0.23 and 0.17 (diastolic BP). The reliability of the correlations increases according to age at first examination: for an initial age between 4 and 10 years, the correlation coefficient between first and last evaluation is 0.14 while for an initial age of 45-65 years it is 0.38 (systolic BP). The predictive value of a relatively high BP defined as percentage of patients whose systolic BP is staying in the upper fifth of the BP distribution ten years later is for increasing age group: 28.7%, 31.1%, 39.7%, 42.5%; that means a relative risk moving from 1.34 to 3.17. Sensitivity of detection of male patients whose systolic BP will be in the upper fifth of the distribution varies from 22 to 42% according to age, with a specificity of 86.3 to 82.2%. The results are sensibly similar in the female patients and for diastolic BP.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)