Older voters and the 2008 election

In the 2008 presidential election, a majority of older persons voted for John McCain, the loser. The purposes of this report are to help illuminate why older voters were the only age-group that gave a majority to McCain and to delineate some ongoing issues in the analysis of older persons' voting behavior.

Analysis was undertaken by mining raw data from the 2008 Edison-Mitofsky national Election Day exit poll, as well as compilations from that poll that were published by various media that finance it.

Republican leanings of the Eisenhower birth cohort that is presently among those aged 65 years and older were a factor, whereas the immediately succeeding younger cohorts did not manifest the same partisan predilection. Positive self-identification with the 72-year -old McCain by voters aged 65-74 years seems to have been another factor, although there was no indication of such age identification among those aged 60-64 years and 75 years and older. Race may have been a factor, although all groups of White voters aged 30 years and older gave McCain a substantial majority, whereas the youngest cohort of Whites, aged 18-29 years, favored Obama.

In the study of age-group voting behavior, ongoing attention is needed to cohort and period effects, as well as candidates' contrasting individual characteristics-in addition to possible effects of campaign issues.