Trends in morbidity and general practitioners' workload for middle-aged and elderly people from 1956 to 1982

This paper presents analysis of the National Morbidity Surveys carried out in 1956, 1972 and 1982. Over this period an increasing proportion of middle-aged and elderly patients consulted their general practitioners (GPs) and the average patient consulted for more illnesses. This rise in reported morbidity, particularly for circulatory and musculo-skeletal illnesses, occurred during a period of decline in the mortality rate, which suggests that the latter is a poor indicator of population health. The sharp reduction in the consultation rate between 1956 and 1972 suggests that GPs were limiting their role to primary assessment. However, despite a resurgence in the total number of consultations by 1982, the rapid increase in morbidity between 1972 and 1982 further eroded the levels of consultation per episode of illness. Given that the age-structure of the elderly population is gradually shifting upwards and that each generation reports more illness than its predecessor, GPs can expect to face increasing levels of demand for services from elderly patients.