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The origin and spread of a mumps epidemic: United kingdom, 2003-2006

Hershel Jick1, Douglas P Chamberlin, Katrina Wilcox Hagberg

  • 1Boston Collaborative Drug Surveillance Program, Boston University School of Medicine, Lexington, MA 02421, USA. hjick@bu.edu

Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
|July 14, 2009
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

The UK experienced a large mumps epidemic from 2003-2006, primarily affecting young adults. The measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine provided significant protection, especially with two doses.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Immunization

Background:

  • The United Kingdom (UK) faced a substantial mumps epidemic between 2003 and 2006.
  • Disease surveillance was conducted across 350 general practices, encompassing approximately 3 million patients via the General Practice Research Database (GPRD).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To map the origin and spread of the mumps epidemic in the UK.
  • To estimate the incidence and identify risk factors for mumps infection.
  • To assess the impact of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine on the epidemic.

Main Methods:

  • Calculated the 3-month cumulative incidence of mumps based on diagnosed cases and population at risk.
  • Analyzed incidence by age, region, practice, and time.
  • Compared MMR vaccine exposure between mumps cases and non-cases to estimate vaccine effectiveness.

Main Results:

  • Over 5,683 mumps cases were recorded, estimating over 100,000 cases in the UK.
  • The epidemic originated in Wales in 2003, spreading north and east, peaking in 2005.
  • Young adults (18-24 years) were at highest risk; the MMR vaccine offered over 70% protection by 2006, with higher efficacy for two doses.

Conclusions:

  • The GPRD facilitated real-time recording of infectious disease dynamics.
  • This data provided a robust foundation for understanding the mumps epidemic's origin, spread, and scale.

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