Otolaryngological manpower in Canada in the year 2000

Otolaryngologic manpower in Canada has been carefully monitored since the mid-1970s. Within that frame of reference it is now possible to make some projections as to what the manpower picture will be into the next century. These projections are based on a computer model of population demographics as developed by Statistics Canada following the 1986 census. For these projections it is assumed that current government policies as regards immigration of physicians into Canada will be maintained over the next decade and that domestic training programs will not see any substantial increase in numbers. On the basis of these projections it would appear that current manpower shortages will continue and likely be exacerbated over the next 10 years and probably well into the 21st century.