Pandemic influenza--including a risk assessment of H5N1

J K Taubenberger1, D M Morens

  • 1Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, 33 North Drive, Bethesda, MD 20892-3203, USA. taubenbergerj@niaid.nih.gov

Insights

Influenza pandemics have impacted populations for centuries, causing widespread illness and death. Studying past influenza pandemics can inform future planning and understanding of pandemic strain formation.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Virology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Influenza pandemics and epidemics have been recurring global health events since at least the Middle Ages.
  • Historically, pandemics have infected over 50% of populations and caused significant excess mortality.
  • At least 13 influenza pandemics have been recorded since 1500, with five major events in the last 120 years.

Observation:

  • Predicting the timing, origin, and severity of future influenza pandemics remains challenging.
  • There is no consensus on which influenza virus subtype is most likely to cause the next pandemic.
  • The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses has increased focus on pandemic prediction.

Findings:

  • Historical analysis of influenza pandemics, despite pre-virology era uncertainties, offers valuable insights.
  • Understanding past pandemic events is crucial for developing effective future pandemic preparedness strategies.
  • Research into influenza A virus ecobiology is key to understanding pandemic strain emergence.

Implications:

  • Studying historical influenza pandemics can guide public health planning and response.
  • Enhanced understanding of influenza virus ecobiology may improve prediction of pandemic strains.
  • Proactive research is essential for mitigating the impact of future global influenza outbreaks.

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