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Spatiotemporal structure of host-pathogen interactions in a metapopulation
S Soubeyrand1, A-L Laine, I Hanski
1Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, UR546 Biostatistics and Spatial Processes, 84914 Avignon, France. samuel.soubeyrand@avignon.inra.fr
This study models fungal pathogen dynamics in a plant metapopulation. It identifies key overwintering sites that initiate seasonal epidemics, revealing spatial variation in host-pathogen interactions.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Plant Pathology
Background:
- Spatiotemporal variation in population size influences ecological and evolutionary dynamics.
- Investigating natural population dynamics across large spatial and temporal scales is challenging.
Purpose of the Study:
- To reconstruct continuous-time infection dynamics of an obligate fungal pathogen using discrete-time occurrence data.
- To identify overwintering sites and understand regional heterogeneity in host-pathogen interactions.
Main Methods:
- Combined mechanistic and statistical approaches.
- Analyzed 6 years of annual presence/absence data for Podosphaera plantaginis infecting Plantago lanceolata.
- Modeled infection dynamics in a metapopulation across a 50 km x 70 km area in Finland.
Main Results:
- Identified strong seasonality with high winter extinction and summer epidemic expansion for local pathogen populations.
- Pinpointed regions with successful pathogen overwintering, acting as epidemic foci.
- Observed significant regional heterogeneity in overwintering success and host-pathogen encounter rates.
Conclusions:
- Overwintering sites are crucial for initiating seasonal epidemics.
- Regional heterogeneity in host-pathogen interactions has significant implications for coevolutionary dynamics.
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