Prediction of the antihypertensive response to enalapril

This study investigates the potential utility of a drug concentration-effect modelling approach to predict the long-term response to antihypertensive treatment with enalapril. Concentration-effect relationships were characterized in 13 subjects following a single dose of enalapril (20 mg) and for each individual the derived parameters were used to predict the steady-state blood pressure profile. The predicted responses (before dosing and 4 h after dosing) were in close agreement with the responses observed after 6 weeks. In individual patients, the observed and predicted blood pressure profiles over a 12 h period were compared. In six of the 13 subjects, there were statistically significant (P less than 0.05) prediction errors. However, in all but one of these patients the error was less than 10%, and for the group as a whole the mean prediction error was small and not statistically significant (-0.6 +/- 2.1 mmHg). The kinetic-dynamic parameters derived from observations of the first dose were used to simulate steady-state responses to several alternative doses and dose frequencies. A regimen of 10 mg twice daily increased the ratio of blood pressure at trough-to-peak response to 75 +/- 5% compared to 33 +/- 16% when 20 mg was given once daily. In addition, a twice-daily regimen reduced the coefficient of variation of the hourly average blood pressure. Thus, concentration-effect parameters derived from the first dose response to enalapril have potential not only for predicting long-term antihypertensive response, but also for optimizing dosage regimens for individual patients.