Predicting nursing human resources: an exploratory study.

Area of Science:

• Health Services Research
• Health Workforce Planning
• Socioeconomic Determinants of Health

Background:

• The nurse-to-population ratio (NPOP) is a critical indicator of a nation's healthcare human resources capacity.
• Understanding factors influencing NPOP is essential for effective health workforce planning and policy development.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore the predictive relationship between socioeconomic development indicators and the NPOP.
• To identify key socioeconomic variables that can forecast NPOP in a country.

Main Methods:

• An exploratory study was conducted using Mexico as a case example.
• Five significant variables were selected based on a qualitative analysis of nursing human resource development.
• Multiple linear regression analysis was employed to assess the predictive power of these variables.

Main Results:

• Two socioeconomic development indicators were identified as significant predictors of the NPOP.
• The developed regression model explained a substantial 70% of the variance in NPOP (r² = .7; p = .0000).

Conclusions:

• Socioeconomic development indicators are significant predictors of the nurse-to-population ratio.
• These findings have critical implications for shaping nursing human resource policies in Mexico and globally.
• The study highlights the importance of considering socioeconomic factors in building healthcare human capital to meet population health needs.