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An agent-based approach for modeling dynamics of contagious disease spread
Liliana Perez1, Suzana Dragicevic
1Spatial Analysis and Modeling Laboratory, Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada. lperezca@sfu.ca
International Journal of Health Geographics
|August 7, 2009
Summary
This study introduces a geographic information system (GIS)-agent-based model to simulate infectious disease spread in urban areas. The model reveals how individual interactions and mobility patterns concentrate disease in locations like schools, aiding epidemic control.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
- Computational modeling
Background:
- Communicable disease propagation is a critical spatial and temporal process.
- Understanding disease diffusion through human contact networks is vital for public health.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an agent-based model integrating GIS for simulating urban communicable disease spread.
- To analyze disease transmission influenced by individual interactions in a geospatial context.
Main Methods:
- Agent-based modeling approach representing individuals with mobility within an urban transportation network.
- Implementation using measles outbreak data in Metro Vancouver and Burnaby, BC, utilizing georeferenced land use and census data.
Main Results:
- The model effectively depicts disease progression and calculates susceptible/infected ratios over time.
- Dynamic spatial interactions lead to disease concentration in specific urban locations such as schools and universities.
Conclusions:
- The GIS-agent based model is adaptable for simulating various communicable diseases by adjusting disease parameters.
- Simulation results enhance understanding of disease spread dynamics, supporting epidemic prevention and control strategies.
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