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[Poor prognosis factors in SLE: results of 5-year follow-up]
Aim:
To determine factors of poor prognosis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).
Material And Methods:
Clinical and device examinations were made in 64 patients hospitalized with verified SLE. Its activity was assessed by SLAM and SLEDAI indices, severity--with SLICC/ACR. Five years after the primary examination the patients were re-examined. Prognostic factors were investigated using multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression.
Results:
A 5-year survival of SLE patients was 87.5%. For 5 years SLICC/ACR has risen from 1.24 +/- 1.29 to 2.58 +/- 1.89 points (p < 0.001). Reproductive, nervous, cardiovascular and osseomuscular disorders made the greatest contribution to this rise. The age of SLE onset, SLICC/ACR at the start of the study, the absence of a rapid response to treatment were significant predictors of SLICC/ ACR rise in the model of linear regression. This model explains 62.7% of the dependent index variance. The model of binary logistic regression, in which a dependent variable was survival, identified the same three indices as statistically significant. The model explained 74.4% of 5-year survival variance and predicted an outcome correctly in 86.2% cases.
Conclusion:
Key factors of a poor SLE prognosis are a late SLE onset, a severe initial lesion and no rapid response to therapy.
