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Published on: April 7, 2021
Are meteorological parameters associated with acute respiratory tract infections?
Jean-Baptist du Prel1, Wolfram Puppe, Britta Gröndahl
1Kinderklinik, Paediatrische Infektiologie & Zentrum Praeventive Paediatrie, Universitaetsmedizin, Johannes-Gutenberg-Universitaet, Mainz, Germany.
Insights
Climate influences acute respiratory infections (ARIs). Temperature affects influenza A and RSV hospitalizations, while humidity impacts rhinovirus. This study shows RSV epidemics are predictable using weather data.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Epidemiology
- Virology
Background:
- Understanding the onset of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) aids in timing preventive strategies, such as immunizing high-risk infants against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).
- Investigating the impact of climate on ARI hospitalizations can improve predictions of seasonal ARI pathogen activity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the influence of climate on hospitalizations for ARIs.
- To develop a predictive model for seasonal ARI pathogen activity.
Main Methods:
- Collected samples from 3044 children hospitalized with ARIs in Mainz, Germany (2001-2006).
- Utilized multiplex reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to test for pathogens.
- Correlated ARI hospitalizations with meteorological parameters and employed time series analysis for RSV hospitalization prediction.
Main Results:
- Influenza A, RSV, and adenovirus showed correlations with temperature.
- Rhinovirus correlated with relative humidity.
- A time series model incorporating seasonal and climatic conditions successfully predicted RSV-associated hospitalizations.
Conclusions:
- Meteorological factors explain the seasonality of specific ARI pathogens.
- The developed model represents an initial step toward predicting annual RSV epidemics using weather forecast data.
Background:
Information on the onset of epidemics of acute respiratory tract infections (ARIs) is useful in timing preventive strategies (eg, the passive immunization of high-risk infants against respiratory syncytial virus [RSV]). Aiming at better predictions of the seasonal activity of ARI pathogens, we investigated the influence of climate on hospitalizations for ARIs.
Methods:
Samples obtained from 3044 children hospitalized with ARIs in Mainz, Germany, were tested for pathogens with a multiplex reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay from 2001 through 2006. Hospitalizations for ARIs were correlated with meteorological parameters recorded at the University of Mainz. The frequency of hospitalization for RSV infection was predicted on the basis of multiple time series analysis.
Results:
Influenza A, RSV, and adenovirus were correlated with temperature and rhinovirus to relative humidity. In a time series model that included seasonal and climatic conditions, RSV-associated hospitalizations were predictable.
Conclusions:
Seasonality of certain ARI pathogens can be explained by meteorological influences. The model presented herein is a first step toward predicting annual RSV epidemics using weather forecast data.
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