Use of aggregate fitness indicators to predict transition into the National Hockey League

Athletes (n = 345) invited to the annual combine conducted by the National Hockey League (NHL) prior to the entry draft were administered tests to measure upper body strength, lower body power, aerobic and anaerobic energy systems, and body composition. Their common variance was extracted using factor analysis from which an overall composite index was derived. A score on this index in the 90th percentile is associated with 72% and 60% probability of playing in the NHL within 4 years after the draft for defensemen and forwards, respectively. These findings demonstrate that by taking into account the shared variance on standard tests of fitness, it is possible to use the athlete's results to gauge his potential for playing in the NHL.