The distribution and transitions of physicians in Japan: a 1974-2004 retrospective cohort study

In Japan, physicians freely choose their specialty and workplace, because to date there is no management system to ensure a balanced distribution of physicians. Physicians in Japan start their careers in hospitals, then become specialists, and then gradually leave hospitals to work in private clinics and take on primary care roles in their specialty fields. The present study aimed to analyse national trends in the distribution and career transitions of physicians among types of facilities and specialties over a 30-year period.

We obtained an electronic file containing physician registration data from the Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists. Descriptive statistics and data on movement between facilities (hospitals and clinics) for all physicians from 1974, 1984, 1994 and 2004 were analysed. Descriptive statistics for the groups of physicians who graduated in 1970, 1980 and 1990 were also analysed, and we examined these groups over time to evaluate their changes of occupation and specialty.

The number of physicians per 100,000 population was 113 in 1974, and rose to 212 by 2004. The number of physicians working in hospitals increased more than threefold. In Japan, while almost all physicians choose hospital-based positions at the beginning of their career, around 20% of physicians withdrew from hospitals within 10 years, and this trend of leaving hospitals was similar among generations. Physicians who graduated in 1980 and registered in general surgery, cardiovascular surgery or paediatric surgery were 10 times more likely to change their specialty, compared with those who registered in internal medicine. More than half of the physicians who registered in 1970 had changed their specialties within a period of 30 years.

The government should focus primarily on changing the physician fee schedule, with careful consideration of the balance between office-based physicians and hospital-based physicians and among specialties. To implement effective policies in managing health care human resources, policy-makers should also pay attention to continuously monitoring physicians' practising status and career motivations; and national consensus is needed regarding the number of physicians required in each type of facility and specialty as well as region.