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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling

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Published on: July 4, 2007

The Greek demographic expansion: models and comparisons.

Walter Scheidel¹

¹Stanford University.

The Journal of Hellenic Studies

|August 18, 2009

Summary

Ancient Greek population grew significantly across the Aegean and beyond during the first millennium BC. This study provides a quantitative framework to analyze demographic changes and settlement patterns.

Area of Science:

Historical Demography
Ancient Greek Civilization

Background:

The first millennium BC saw substantial population increases in ancient Greece, both in the core Aegean region and its expanding peripheries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea.
Existing research often lacks a quantitative framework for analyzing these demographic shifts.

Observation:

This paper establishes a quantitative framework to estimate long-term demographic growth rates in mainland Greece from the Early Iron Age to the Classical period.
It critically examines the concept of explosive population growth during the 8th and 7th centuries BC.
The study investigates the scale and demographic impact of Greek overseas colonization.

Findings:

Plausible estimates for average long-term demographic growth rates in mainland Greece have been identified.

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The notion of explosive population growth in specific periods is comprehensively rebutted.

The probable scale and demographic consequences of Greek settlement overseas are determined.

Implications:

The developed parametric models contextualize ancient Greek demographic development within pre-modern demography.
This research provides a conceptual template for future studies on ancient population dynamics.
Understanding demographic trends offers insights into the quality of life in ancient Greece.