The Greek demographic expansion: models and comparisons

Area of Science:

• Historical Demography
• Ancient Greek Civilization

Background:

• The first millennium BC saw substantial population increases in ancient Greece, both in the core Aegean region and its expanding peripheries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea.
• Existing research often lacks a quantitative framework for analyzing these demographic shifts.

Observation:

• This paper establishes a quantitative framework to estimate long-term demographic growth rates in mainland Greece from the Early Iron Age to the Classical period.
• It critically examines the concept of explosive population growth during the 8th and 7th centuries BC.
• The study investigates the scale and demographic impact of Greek overseas colonization.

Findings:

• Plausible estimates for average long-term demographic growth rates in mainland Greece have been identified.
• The notion of explosive population growth in specific periods is comprehensively rebutted.
• The probable scale and demographic consequences of Greek settlement overseas are determined.

Implications:

• The developed parametric models contextualize ancient Greek demographic development within pre-modern demography.
• This research provides a conceptual template for future studies on ancient population dynamics.
• Understanding demographic trends offers insights into the quality of life in ancient Greece.