[Risk of epilepsy after a first epileptic seizure in adults: Can we predict the future?]

The new definition of epilepsy recently proposed by an international panel of experts relies on the association of a first clinically certain seizure and of an enduring predisposition of the brain increasing the likelihood of future seizures. In the first part of this review, we will expose and organize into a hierarchical order the risk factors of subsequent recurrence. The major factors are: seizure(s) prior to presentation, paroxysmal abnormalities on early EEG, a remote symptomatic etiology. In the second part of this review, we will address the issue of clinical uncertainty when assessing the epileptic origin of a first clinical paroxysmal event, the reasons of uncertainty and the means to minimize it. We will analyze successively: the accuracy of eyewitness observations of transient loss of consciousness, the reliability and predictive validity of clinical criteria used for seizure assessment, the issue of overlapping clinical features between seizure and other non epileptic paroxysmal events (such as psychogenic non epileptic seizures), and finally the reliability and diagnostic value of early EEG for seizure assessment. To conclude, seizure assessment and diagnosis of epilepsy cannot be dissociated from syndrome and etiology diagnosis, which should be periodically reassessed towards a greater accuracy during the course of the disease.