Linking material flow analysis and resource policy via future scenarios of in-use stock: an example for copper

A key aspect to achieving long-term resource sustainability is the development of methodologies that explore future material cycles and their environmental impact. Using a novel dynamic in-use stock model and scenario analysis, I analyzed the multilevel global copper cycle over the next 100 years. In 1990, the industrialized world had an in-use copper stock about twice as large as the developing world and a per capita in-use stock of about six times as large. By 2100, the developing world will have an in-use copper stock about three times as large as the industrialized world, but the industrialized world will maintain a per capita stock twice that of the developing world. Under a scenario of no material substitution or technological change in copper products, global in-use stock in 2100 will be about as large as currently known copper resources. However, current scrap recycling trends and exploration will alleviate absolute supply pressure but not environmental impacts from decreasing copper are grades. Additionally, unexpected emergent properties of dematerialization are observed from the in-use stock model that arise solely from the properties of stock dynamics, an infrequently discussed cause of dematerialization in the literature.