Investigating the role of enemies in temporal dynamics: Differential sensitivity, competition and stable coexistence

The impact of herbivores and other pests on plants varies greatly from year to year. Here we develop an analytical model of a temporal niche dynamic as a tool to examine how natural fluctuations in pest (enemy) levels may determine coexistence in competing annual plant species when one but not the other is affected by the pest. We show that the probability and speed with which the resistant drives out the sensitive species, coexists with it, or is driven out by its sensitive competitor depends on the cost of pest-resistance to the unaffected species, the frequency of high pest levels in the habitat and the competitive advantage of the sensitive species when the pest is not actively present. The interaction is regulated primarily by pest impact on relative seedling survival of the two, with relative yield per capita of seeds viable into the following season (effective fecundity) the next most vulnerable life-cycle stage.