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Modelling the burden of stroke in Finland until 2030.
J Sivenius1, J Torppa, J Tuomilehto
1University Hospital of Kuopio, Brain Research and Rehabilitation Center Neuron Kuopio, Finland.
Summary
Stroke incidence in Finland may not increase due to population aging if current declining trends continue. Maintaining these trends is crucial to prevent a near doubling of annual stroke cases by 2030.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Increasing age is the primary risk factor for stroke.
- Finland's population is aging, leading to expectations of a significant rise in stroke cases over the next two decades.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project future stroke incidence in Finland.
- To assess the impact of population aging on stroke burden.
- To evaluate the effect of continuing declining trends on future stroke numbers.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the FINMONICA and FINSTROKE registers (1983-1997) in Kuopio and Turku.
- Analyzed trends in stroke incidence, mortality, and case fatality, including in the elderly (>74 years).
- Developed a national model using register trends and age-specific population projections from Statistics Finland up to 2030.
Main Results:
- Estimated 11,500 new first stroke cases in 2000.
- Projected 20,100 new strokes by 2030 if trends level off.
- Projected 12,100 new strokes by 2030 if favorable declining trends (1983-1997) continue.
Conclusions:
- Population aging does not necessarily mean an increased stroke burden in Finland.
- Maintaining current declining stroke trends is key to preventing a near doubling of annual cases.
- If incidence remains at 2000 levels, the annual number of stroke cases could nearly double by 2030.
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