Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 19, 2026
Biomechanical Changes Related to Low Back Pain: An Innovative Tool for Movement Pattern Assessment and Treatment Evaluation in Rehabilitation
Published on: December 13, 2024
Predicting persistent low back pain in schoolchildren: a prospective cohort study
Gareth T Jones1, Gary J Macfarlane
1Aberdeen Pain Research Collaboration (Epidemiology Group), University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK. gareth.jones@abdn.ac.uk
Insights
Childhood low back pain (LBP) can persist for years. Identifying risk factors like peer problems and widespread pain helps predict which children will experience chronic LBP.
Area of Science:
- Pediatrics
- Musculoskeletal Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Low back pain (LBP) is a prevalent issue in children, yet prognostic indicators remain unclear.
- Understanding factors predicting LBP chronicity is crucial for early intervention.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify risk factors associated with the persistence of low back pain in children.
- To establish predictors for chronic LBP in a pediatric population.
Main Methods:
- A prospective study followed 330 children with LBP for 4 years.
- Data on lifestyle, symptoms, emotional characteristics, and pain were collected via questionnaires.
Main Results:
- 26% of children reported persistent LBP after 4 years.
- Independent predictors included peer problems, smaller stature, widespread pain, long LBP duration, and radiating leg pain.
- Children with no risk factors had <5% persistent LBP, while those with 4-5 factors had ~80%.
Conclusions:
- Approximately 25% of children aged 11-14 with LBP experience persistent symptoms 4 years later.
- Early identification of at-risk children is possible using clinical markers and etiological factors.
- Findings support developing secondary prevention strategies for childhood LBP.
Objective:
Low back pain (LBP) is common in children but the prognostic indicators are poorly understood. We report the results of a prospective study to determine the risk factors for chronic LBP in children.
Methods:
A total of 330 children with LBP were identified from a cross-sectional survey in schools in Northwest England. Data were collected by self-completion questionnaire on a number of potential risk factors for LBP persistence, including lifestyle factors, the occurrence of other symptoms, behavioral and emotional characteristics, and symptom severity and duration. Participants were then followed over the following 4 years to determine persistent symptoms.
Results:
Complete followup data were available from 178 children, of whom 46 (26%) reported persistent LBP. Forward stepwise Poisson regression identified 5 independent predictors of pain persistence: peer relationship problems, being of smaller stature, the prior report of widespread body pain, long duration of LBP episodes, and radiating leg pain. Of children with none of these factors at baseline, <5% went on to report persistent LBP. In contrast, of those with 4 or 5 factors, nearly 80% experienced persistent symptoms.
Conclusion:
Although childhood consultations for LBP are infrequent, we have shown that approximately 25% of children 11-14 years of age with LBP still report symptoms 4 years later. These children can be identified early by a combination of clinical markers and etiologic factors. This provides a basis for considering interventions for secondary prevention; the challenge will be to determine whether we can intervene to alter symptom trajectory at an early stage.
