Predicting extreme avalanches in self-organized critical sandpiles

Area of Science:

• Complex systems
• Statistical physics
• Computational modeling

Background:

• Abelian sandpile models are used to study self-organized criticality.
• Understanding avalanche dynamics is crucial in various complex systems.
• Finite-size effects can significantly alter system behavior.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the predictability of extreme avalanches in a finite-size Abelian sandpile model.
• To explore the relationship between avalanche size and its predictability.
• To analyze the influence of system size on avalanche predictability.

Main Methods:

• Simulated a finite-size Abelian sandpile model.
• Analyzed time series data of avalanche sizes.
• Developed a decision variable to predict future large avalanches.
• Varied system size to study its effects.

Main Results:

• Extreme avalanches exhibit a repulsive behavior.
• A method was developed to predict large avalanches with improved accuracy for larger events.
• Predictability was found to be dependent on system size.
• Larger target avalanches demonstrated higher predictability.

Conclusions:

• The study demonstrates that extreme avalanches in finite systems are predictable.
• Finite-size effects play a critical role in avalanche predictability.
• The findings offer insights into the dynamics of self-organized critical systems.