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Delayed time to first remission identifies poor long-term drug response of childhood-onset epilepsy: a prospective
Matti Sillanpää1, Dieter Schmidt
1Department of Public Health, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
Insights
Achieving first 1-year remission (1YR) within five years of starting antiepileptic drugs significantly improves long-term seizure freedom (5-year terminal remission, 5YTR). Delayed remission reduces the likelihood of sustained seizure control.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Neurology
- Epilepsy Research
- Clinical Pharmacology
Background:
- Long-term antiepileptic drug (AED) response is crucial for managing childhood epilepsy.
- Predicting sustained seizure remission remains a challenge in clinical practice.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine if the time to achieve first 1-year remission (1YR) predicts future long-term seizure remission (5YTR) in children with epilepsy.
- To identify prognostic factors for achieving sustained seizure freedom off medication.
Main Methods:
- A population-based cohort of 144 children with epilepsy was prospectively followed from their first unprovoked seizure.
- Time to first 1-year remission (1YR) and terminal 5-year remission (5YTR) were assessed.
- Prognostic factors including etiology and seizure frequency were analyzed.
Main Results:
- The likelihood of achieving 5YTR was highly dependent on achieving 1YR within the first five years of AED treatment.
- Patients achieving 1YR within 5 years had an 11-fold increased chance of 5YTR and a 9-fold increased chance of uninterrupted 5YTR off medication.
- Delayed remission (beyond 5 years) significantly diminished the chances for long-term seizure remission.
Conclusions:
- Early achievement of 1-year remission is a strong predictor of long-term seizure freedom in children with epilepsy.
- Failure to achieve remission within five years of AED treatment predicts a poor prognosis for sustained seizure control.
- Etiology, and seizure frequency before and during treatment, are also important prognostic factors for 5YTR.
Abstract:
We determined if time to first remission predicts long-term antiepileptic drug response. We assessed time to first 1-year remission (1YR) as a determinant of entering future terminal 5-year remission (5YTR) in a population-based cohort of 144 children prospectively followed-up since their first unprovoked seizure before the age of 16 years up to the mean age of 48 years. The proportion of patients entering 5YTR was highly dependent on the length of time to first 1YR after starting adequate treatment. For 144 patients, the overall 5YTR rate decreased from 32% for those in remission at year 1 to 24% at year 2, to 5% after 3 and 4 years, to 2% after 5 years or longer. Patients who entered 1YR within the first 5 years of treatment had an 11-fold better chance to enter 5YTR (odds ratio=11.4, 95% CI=2.9-45.3, P=0.0005) and a 9-fold chance for uninterrupted 5YTR off medications (OR=9.0, 95% CI=1.171.9, P=0.0383) compared with those who did not enter 1YR within the first 5 years of treatment. Three additional independent prognostic factors for predicting terminal 5YTR were confirmed: etiology, seizure frequency prior to treatment, and seizure frequency during treatment. We conclude that delayed efficacy after starting drug treatment gradually diminishes chances for long-term seizure remission, whether on medication or not. Not entering remission within 5 years of starting treatment predicts failure to achieve long-term seizure freedom in the future for the vast majority of patients.
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