Explaining Alberta's rising mesothelioma rates

Although mesothelioma rates have been rising worldwide, little is known about mesothelioma trends in Alberta. This population-based descriptive study used Alberta Cancer Board Registry data from 1980 to 2004 to develop an age-period-cohort model of male pleural mesothelioma incidence rates over time. Both age and cohort effects are associated with incidence rates. The highest-risk cohort comprised men born between 1930 and 1939, reflecting widespread asbestos use and exposure beginning in the 1940s in Canada. We predict that 1393 Albertan men 40 years and older will die of pleural mesothelioma between 1980 and 2024; 783 (56.2%) of these deaths will occur between 2010 and 2024. The total number of mesothelioma deaths in Alberta will be higher when all age groups, both sexes, and all disease sites are included, with numbers likely peaking sometime between 2015 and 2019. In addition to the ongoing efforts that focus on eliminating asbestos-related disease in Alberta, the challenge is to implement surveillance systems to prevent future epidemics of preventable occupational cancers in Alberta.