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Updated: Jun 19, 2026
06:10
Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change
Kyle L Swanson1, George Sugihara, Anastasios A Tsonis
1Atmospheric Sciences Group, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA. kswanson@uwm.edu
Summary
Scientists developed a method to isolate natural climate variability from global temperature data. This reveals a clear, accelerating warming trend caused by external factors like greenhouse gases.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Earth System Science
- Oceanography
Background:
- Global mean surface temperature is influenced by external forcings (e.g., greenhouse gases) and internal climate system variability.
- Natural long-term climate variability, primarily driven by oceanic circulation changes, affects temperature records.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an objective technique for identifying natural long-term climate variability in global mean surface temperature.
- To isolate the externally forced climate signal by removing natural variability.
Main Methods:
- Developed a novel technique to objectively identify and quantify natural long-term climate variability.
- Applied the technique to observed global mean surface temperature records.
- Removed the identified natural variability component from the temperature data.
Main Results:
- Successfully delineated the component of inter-decadal global mean surface temperature attributable to natural variability.
- The removal of natural variability revealed a monotonic and accelerating warming signal.
- The externally forced climate signal shows consistent warming throughout the 20th century.
Conclusions:
- The study successfully isolates the externally forced climate signal from observed temperature data.
- Natural climate variability can mask or amplify underlying long-term warming trends.
- The findings underscore the significant impact of anthropogenic forcings on global warming.
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