Trends in survival of Danish AIDS patients from 1981 to 1989

Length of survival was analysed in relation to year of diagnosis, AIDS-indicative disease, age, risk behaviour, zidovudine therapy, and CD4 cell count and serum immunoglobulin (Ig) levels at the time of diagnosis in a group of 231 consecutive adult Danish AIDS patients reported before 1 January 1988. The cumulative survival rate was 53% (95% confidence interval 47-59%) at 1 year, 29% (22-36%) at 2 years and 18% (10-26%) at 3 years. Length of survival increased significantly (P less than 0.001) over time for patients who were initially diagnosed with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP), 17% (3-31%) at 2 years prior to 1986, 32% (16-49%) in 1986 and 52% (34-69%) in 1987, whereas survival remained stable for patients with other AIDS-indicative diseases. Survival was similar for patients who were diagnosed with Kaposi's sarcoma alone and PCP alone. Independent predictors of a shortened survival were a CD4 cell count less than 200 x 10(6)/l, a serum IgA level greater than 4 g/l, and an initial diagnosis with opportunistic infections other than PCP. In addition, the multivariate analysis suggested an improved survival in recent years for patients diagnosed with PCP, independent of other factors examined. We conclude that length of survival in AIDS patients is highly variable. Determinants of progression include CD4 cell count, serum IgA level, and presenting disease. Survival has increased markedly for patients with PCP and median survival now exceeds 24 months.