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The risk factors for unexplained antepartum stillbirths in Scotland, 1994 to 2003
R Sutan1, D Campbell, G J Prescott
1Department of Community Health, University Kebangsaan Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. rosnah@medic.ukm.my
Objective:
To determine the factors contributing to unexplained antepartum stillbirth in Scotland.
Study Design:
A 10-year birth database in Scotland was used to compare the unexplained antepartum stillbirth with other birth outcomes. The sample unit was a pregnant mother with a gestational age of 20 weeks and above and with a fetal birth weight of 200 g and above.
Result:
Maternal age of 35 years and above, lower deprivation category, inaccessible area of residence, maternal smoking, maternal height of <160 cm and gestational age of above 39 weeks were significantly associated with unexplained antepartum stillbirth. In multivariable analysis only maternal age (adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.8, confidence interval (CI): 1.1 to 3.0, P=0.02), smoking during pregnancy (adjusted OR: 2.0, CI: 1.1 to 3.5, P=0.02), and maternal height (adjusted OR: 1.4, CI: 1.1 to 1.8, P=0.01), remain significant. Screening of pregnancies based on these three risk factors had 4.2% sensitivity and 99.4% specificity. The prevalence of stillbirth for this population was 0.2%. A positive predictive value of only 1.2% implies that only 1 in 83 women with these three risk factors will have antepartum stillbirth. The remaining 82 will suffer needless anxiety and potentially diagnostic procedures.
Conclusion:
Advanced maternal age, maternal smoking, and shorter maternal height were associated risk for unexplained antepartum stillbirth but screening based on these factors would be of limited value.
