[Methods for diminishing mortality from infectious diseases]

The paper reports analysis of the "Russian Cross" demographic phenomenon characteristic of the present-day Russia, that is a marked excess of mortality over the birth rate leading to the reduction of the country's population at a rate of 750-800 thou people per year. The main causes and factors of excess mortality are considered with reference to deaths from infectious (viral and microbial) diseases. Experts of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences proposed the working concept of the research program "Avoidable population mortality from infectious diseases in 2010-2020". Its implementation envisages the use of up-to-date information and computer technologies including mathematical and computer simulation of morbidity and mortality processes in outbreaks and epidemics of infectious diseases. The use of computer-assisted technologies is illustrated by the example of smallpox epidemics. They permit to promptly analyse and prognosticate excess mortality from infectious diseases by applying new diagnostic tools and medicinal products. This approach is proposed for the evaluation of the effectiveness of different projects in the framework of the above program. Its realization requires the development of three special information (computer-aided) systems designated Projects, Infections, and Prognoses.