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Updated: Jun 19, 2026
Experimental Human Pneumococcal Carriage
Published on: February 15, 2013
Estimating the direct impact of new conjugate vaccines against invasive pneumococcal disease
W P Hausdorff1, R Dagan, F Beckers
1GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Wavre, Belgium. william.p.hausdorff@gskbio.com
Insights
New pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) offer improved invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) protection. A predictive algorithm suggests new PCVs like PHiD-CV may prevent 60-80% of IPD cases in children globally.
Area of Science:
- Immunology
- Vaccinology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- New pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are emerging with different serotype compositions and immunogenicity profiles compared to the 7-valent CRM197 protein conjugate vaccine (7vCRM).
- Understanding the impact of these differences on vaccine effectiveness is crucial for public health strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose and utilize a predictive algorithm for assessing the effectiveness of new PCVs against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD).
- To compare the predicted effectiveness of a 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable H. influenzae protein D-conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) with the existing 7vCRM.
Main Methods:
- Developed a predictive algorithm based on World Health Organization (WHO) licensure criteria principles.
- Integrated serotype-specific effectiveness data for 7vCRM.
- Incorporated head-to-head immunogenicity data comparing PHiD-CV and 7vCRM.
- Utilized epidemiological data on IPD serotypes in young children.
Main Results:
- The algorithm predicts PHiD-CV effectiveness in preventing IPD in young children worldwide to be approximately 60-80%.
- The algorithm predicts 7vCRM effectiveness in preventing IPD in young children worldwide to be approximately 45-80%.
- Significant regional and country-specific variability in predicted effectiveness was observed for both vaccines.
Conclusions:
- The proposed algorithm provides a framework for predicting PCV effectiveness based on immunogenicity and epidemiological data.
- Newer PCVs, such as PHiD-CV, show a promising range of predicted effectiveness against IPD.
- Vaccine effectiveness predictions highlight the need for considering regional epidemiological differences.
Abstract:
New pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are now becoming available. These formulations differ from the heptavalent diphtheria toxin variant conjugate vaccine (7vCRM, Prevenar/Prevnar) both in the number of serotypes and in serotype-specific immunogenicity. This review proposes an algorithm that attempts to predict the overall impact of these differences in vaccine formulation and immunogenicity on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) effectiveness. It builds on the principles underlying WHO licensure criteria for new PCVs, that serotype-specific anti-polysaccharide immunogenicity is potentially predictive of effectiveness. The algorithm used three sources of information: serotype-specific effectiveness data for 7vCRM, serotype-specific head-to-head immunogenicity data with 7vCRM and a recently licensed 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable H. influenzae protein D-conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV, Synflorix), and epidemiological information regarding the serotypes causing IPD in young children. Based on this algorithm, PHiD-CV and 7vCRM are predicted to prevent approximately 60-80% and 45-80%, respectively of IPD in young children worldwide, with significant variability by country and region.
