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Statistical modelling of childhood diarrhea in northeastern Thailand

Jurairat Ardkaew1, Phattrawan Tongkumchum

  • 1Department of Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Loei Rajabhat University, Loei, Thailand.

The Southeast Asian Journal of Tropical Medicine and Public Health
|October 22, 2009
PubMed

Insights

Diarrhea incidence in young children in Thailand shows seasonal peaks from January to June. Health authorities can use this data to improve disease prevention strategies.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Pediatrics

Background:

  • Diarrhea is a significant cause of illness in children under five in Thailand.
  • Understanding diarrhea incidence patterns is crucial for effective public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify temporal and spatial patterns of diarrhea incidence in children under five.
  • To inform public health strategies for diarrhea prevention in northeastern Thailand.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of individual hospital case records from 1999-2004.
  • Application of linear regression and generalized estimating equations to model disease incidence.
  • Imputation techniques used to address under-reporting of low disease counts.

Main Results:

  • A distinct seasonal pattern of diarrhea incidence was observed, with peaks in January-March and April-June.
  • Higher incidence rates were noted in specific districts within Loei and Amnat Chroen Provinces.
  • Thematic mapping of incidence levels by district was proposed as a tool for health authorities.

Conclusions:

  • Diarrhea incidence in young children in northeastern Thailand exhibits predictable seasonal trends.
  • Geographic and temporal data on diarrhea incidence are vital for targeted public health interventions.
  • Effective disease prevention policies can be developed based on identified incidence patterns.

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