Using runoff slope-break to determine dominate factors of runoff decline in Hutuo River Basin, North China

Water resources in North China have declined sharply in recent years. Low runoff (especially in the mountain areas) has been identified as the main factor. Hutuo River Basin (HRB), a typical up-stream basin in North China with two subcatchments (Ye and Hutuo River Catchments), was investigated in this study. Mann-Kendall test was used to determine the general trend of precipitation and runoff for 1960-1999. Then Sequential Mann-Kendall test was used to establish runoff slope-break from which the beginning point of sharp decline in runoff was determined. Finally, regression analysis was done to illustrate runoff decline via comparison of precipitation-runoff correlation for the period prior to and after sharp runoff decline. This was further verified by analysis of rainy season peak runoff flows. The results are as follows: (1) annual runoff decline in the basin is significant while that of precipitation is insignificant at alpha=0.05 confidence level; (2) sharp decline in runoff in Ye River Catchment (YRC) occurred in 1968 while that in Hutuo River Catchment (HRC) occurred in 1978; (3) based on the regression analysis, human activity has the highest impact on runoff decline in the basin. As runoff slope-breaks in both Catchments strongly coincided with increase in agricultural activity, agricultural water use is considered the dominate factor of runoff decline in the study area.