On the production of neurologists in the United States: an update

Based primarily on a survey of all neurology residency training programs in the United States conducted in 1985-1986, the average annual production (incidence) of general neurologists for 1980-1986 was 363.6 and of child neurologists for 1982-1986, 53.8. About 1/4 of these general neurologists and 1/3 of child neurologists are women; about 1/4 of either are foreign medical graduates, predominantly foreign-born. Data routinely published by the AMA well match the questionnaire information. First postgraduate year of training was in internal medicine for 2/3 of general neurologists. Board certification have recently averaged 290.9 (general) and 37.1 (child) per annum. From life-table calculations, prevalence of general neurologists in 1990 is estimated at 7,500 fully-trained and 5,500 board-certified, and of child neurologists near 1,100 trained and over 600 certified. The number of neurologists is predicted to plateau near the year 2020 at some 13,700 trained, including 1,700 child neurologists, and 9,800 certified (1,100 child). The maximal prevalence rate for all neurologists will be 4.75 per 100,000 population in 2010, declining then to 4.42 by 2050; those rates provide shortfalls of 30% and 35%, respectively, compared with previously calculated needs for neurologists.