Risk stratification of patients with severe heart failure awaiting heart transplantation-prospective national

T Zieliński1, A Browarek, M Zembala

  • 1Department of Heart Failure and Transplantation, Institute of Cardiology-04-628 Warszawa, ul. Alpejska 42, Warsaw, Poland. tzielin@ikard.pd

Insights

New biomarkers, NTproBNP and hsCRP, alongside the HFSS score, improve risk assessment for heart transplant candidates. Combining these factors enhances prediction of death or urgent transplantation in heart failure patients.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology and Transplant Medicine
  • Biomarker Discovery and Validation
  • Risk Stratification in Heart Failure

Background:

  • Current risk assessment methods for heart transplant candidates often lack novel biomarkers.
  • Accurate prediction of outcomes is crucial for managing patients with advanced heart failure awaiting transplantation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the predictive value of NTproBNP and hsCRP, individually and combined with the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS), for heart transplant candidates.
  • To assess the utility of these biomarkers in identifying patients at high risk of mortality or urgent transplantation.

Main Methods:

  • A prospective registry collected data from 658 patients listed for heart transplantation.
  • The composite endpoint of death or urgent transplantation was monitored during follow-up.
  • Statistical analyses included Kaplan-Meier curves, multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, and ROC analyses.

Main Results:

  • The composite endpoint occurred in 24% of patients (15% death, 9% urgent transplantation).
  • NTproBNP and hsCRP levels, stratified by quartiles, significantly predicted risk (P < .000001 and P < .002, respectively).
  • Multivariate analysis confirmed NTproBNP (P < .01) and HFSS (P < .02) as significant predictors, with borderline significance for hsCRP (P = .057).
  • Combining HFSS, NTproBNP, and hsCRP improved the area under the curve (AUC) to 0.6943, suggesting enhanced predictive power.

Conclusions:

  • HFSS, NTproBNP, and hsCRP are independent predictors of survival and the need for urgent heart transplantation.
  • The combined analysis of these factors moderately increases their predictive value for risk stratification in heart transplant candidates.
Abstract

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