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Risk stratification of patients with severe heart failure awaiting heart transplantation-prospective national
T Zieliński1, A Browarek, M Zembala
1Department of Heart Failure and Transplantation, Institute of Cardiology-04-628 Warszawa, ul. Alpejska 42, Warsaw, Poland. tzielin@ikard.pd
Insights
New biomarkers, NTproBNP and hsCRP, alongside the HFSS score, improve risk assessment for heart transplant candidates. Combining these factors enhances prediction of death or urgent transplantation in heart failure patients.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology and Transplant Medicine
- Biomarker Discovery and Validation
- Risk Stratification in Heart Failure
Background:
- Current risk assessment methods for heart transplant candidates often lack novel biomarkers.
- Accurate prediction of outcomes is crucial for managing patients with advanced heart failure awaiting transplantation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the predictive value of NTproBNP and hsCRP, individually and combined with the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS), for heart transplant candidates.
- To assess the utility of these biomarkers in identifying patients at high risk of mortality or urgent transplantation.
Main Methods:
- A prospective registry collected data from 658 patients listed for heart transplantation.
- The composite endpoint of death or urgent transplantation was monitored during follow-up.
- Statistical analyses included Kaplan-Meier curves, multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, and ROC analyses.
Main Results:
- The composite endpoint occurred in 24% of patients (15% death, 9% urgent transplantation).
- NTproBNP and hsCRP levels, stratified by quartiles, significantly predicted risk (P < .000001 and P < .002, respectively).
- Multivariate analysis confirmed NTproBNP (P < .01) and HFSS (P < .02) as significant predictors, with borderline significance for hsCRP (P = .057).
- Combining HFSS, NTproBNP, and hsCRP improved the area under the curve (AUC) to 0.6943, suggesting enhanced predictive power.
Conclusions:
- HFSS, NTproBNP, and hsCRP are independent predictors of survival and the need for urgent heart transplantation.
- The combined analysis of these factors moderately increases their predictive value for risk stratification in heart transplant candidates.
Unlabelled:
Most methods used in the risk assessment of heart transplant candidates do not include new biomarkers.
Aims:
The aim of the study was to examine the value of NTproBNP and hsCRP and their combined use together with HFSS score in the risk assessment of patients with heart failure enlisted for heart transplantation.
Methods:
Data of 658 patients enlisted for heart transplantation in all active transplantation centers were stored in a prospective registry. The composite end point-death or urgent transplantation was recorded during the follow-up.
Results:
Death or urgent transplantation was recorded in 161 (24%) of pts. 102 (15%) patients died and 59 (9%) were transplanted urgently. Kaplan-Meier curves for risk of death or urgent transplantation where highly significant when pts were stratified by the quartiles of NT proBNP (P < .000001) or quartiles according to the hsCRP level on admission (P < .002). In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, the significance was observed for NTproBNP (P < .01) and HFSS (P < .02), and borderline significance for hsCRP (P = .057). When ROC analyses of the area under the curve (AUC) values were considered, AUC area was for HFSS - 0.645, for NTproBNP - 0.653 and for hsCRP - 0.566. When all those variables were included together in the model, the AUC value rose to 0.6943. Based on those results a weighted risk model with all three parameters was proposed.
Conclusion:
HFSS, NTproBNP and hsCRP levels are independent stratification variables of survival or need for urgent heart transplantation. Their predictive value is moderately increased when they are analyzed together.
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