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Updated: Jun 19, 2026

Using a Bacterial Pathogen to Probe for Cellular and Organismic-level Host Responses
Published on: February 22, 2019
Transient virulence of emerging pathogens.
Benjamin M Bolker1, Arjun Nanda, Dharmini Shah
1Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA. bolker@ufl.edu
Emerging pathogens may become more virulent due to epidemic conditions selecting for higher virulence. This transient selection can significantly increase pathogen virulence during an epidemic, impacting public health.
Area of Science:
- Evolutionary biology
- Epidemiology
- Pathogen dynamics
Background:
- Virulence evolution theories suggest tradeoffs between transmission and pathogen duration.
- Epidemic conditions may favor higher virulence, potentially causing transient peaks early in an outbreak.
- Understanding emerging pathogen virulence is crucial for public health preparedness.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of emerging pathogens.
- To estimate the potential magnitude and timing of virulence peaks in emerging pathogens.
- To assess the contribution of epidemic-phase selection to pathogen virulence.
Main Methods:
- Developed a simple model of pathogen epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics.
- Used parameter estimates for pathogens like SARS, West Nile virus, and myxomatosis.
- Reviewed literature data on virulence tradeoff curves and genetic variation for selected pathogens.
Main Results:
- A model was developed to simulate virulence evolution in emerging pathogens.
- Pathogens with moderate evolvability, high transmissibility, and high equilibrium virulence could double virulence during epidemics.
- Epidemic-phase selection can substantially contribute to the virulence of emerging pathogens.
Conclusions:
- Transient selection during epidemics can significantly increase the virulence of emerging pathogens.
- Further data on virulence tradeoff curves and genetic variance are needed to fully evaluate virulence evolution scenarios.
- This mechanism highlights the dynamic nature of pathogen virulence and its potential impact.
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